Regression Regression Regression

Hello! Welcome back aboard the burning ship. Thanks for tuning into regression, regression, regression. If you didn't know yet, regression is like the location of real estate. Only the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd most important concepts you should learn.

In this series, you can expect a statistically based analysis and discussion over whether players are over performing, underperforming, and which metrics are sustainable. From there, you'll be able to use your big boy brain to help make those 200 IQ moves and crush your league.

Today we're talking about Victor Hedman AKA the Swedish Stud ("SS"). Just look at him. I didn't think they got more handsome than Lundqvist but here we are. It's a discussion. Anyways, Patrick Sharp refused to comment on this part of the newsletter but we'll continue with the analysis below.

2022-2023 season

To date in the 22-23 year SS has 1G and 17A in 30 games pacing him for a 49 points which would be the lowest in his career since he was a 22 year old in 2012-2013. Needless to say, SS is still an elite D and we expect far better given his 3 year average has him pacing at 73 points. Lets dig into it.

Shooting

SS has a career shooting percentage of 6.9%. Sifting through these year by year SS clearly took a step forward in 2013-2014 where his shooting percentage increased and plateaued in a new tier. Before this period SS fluctuated between 3-6.1% shooting and in subsequent years he's been between 6.6-9.6% shooting. Contrast this against his current year shooting of only 1.6% you can see that in the bear case we should see a positive 5% regression to align with career numbers.

A bull case bringing him to career high numbers and you'd expect an upside shooting potential of an additional 8%. This regression alone brings SS back to a 57-63 point pace from the 49 point pace we currently see.

Powerplay

Its no secret that SS thrives on the PP feeding the puck to Kucherov and Stamkos and sometimes ripping a clapper himself from the point. In a similar way to how John Carlson is elite in his role facilitating the lethal Capitals PP. Over the last 4 years SS has averaged 46% of his point totals coming with the man advantage. Currently SS has 33% of his point production coming from the man advantage indicating the PP isn't as potent in years past. This is hard to imagine given the key players (SS, Kuch, Stammer, Point) are all still at the top of their game.

In actuality SS has averaged 32 seconds less of PP time per game than his previous 3 years average. This time per game indicates a near 50/50 split with young stud defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. This is mainly a result of a strong start from Sergachev who has taken some PP1 responsibilities away from Victor but an injury has given this time back entirely to SS and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight. Personally, I don't see this as concerning as it's likely Jon Cooper continues to go with old reliable down the stretch as things are tight in the Atlantic division. This highlights the upside SS has with his increasing role on the PP over the last few games and going forward.

Buzzer Beater

This analysis partially hinges on if you feel Sergachev is having a breakout season that would eclipse our Swedish Stud. Personally, I need way more than a ~20 game sample where he has played well on PP1 when it's contrasted with a decade of top play from SS.

At a minimum we should see Hedmans shooting percentage regress toward the mean which would see SS having a very strong second half of the season and we'll likely see him gaining the lions share of PP1 time as Tampa comes down the stretch in a tight Atlantic Division.

Expect to buy SS as a Low 60 point producer in the bear case and a mid 70 point producer in the bull case. If you drafted him early, have some solace that he will likely be back in form come playoffs. If you're sitting comfy at the top of the standings consider moving some players on a hot streak for this potential league winning player.

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Thanks for reading! Let me know what other players you want to see analyzed by replying to this email. Now its time to jump off the ship before you get burned. Until next time!